Swanson Presents Paper at Workshop and Seminar in Germany and Estonia
Posted: 2026-09-25 12:10:49 (CSDE Research)
On September 18th, CSDE External Affiliate David Swanson (UC Irvine) presented his paper “A New Probabilistic Method for Forecasting Mortality: A Case Study of Estonia” (co-wrote with Jeff Tayman) at the EAPS Workshop on Health, Morbidity, and Mortality in Hannover, Germany. On August 19th, he presented an earlier version of this paper at the annual seminar of the Estonian Demographic Association in Värska, Estonia. The paper introduces a new probabilistic mortality forecasting approach that is directly linked to the fundamental demographic equation. Because it forecasts “years lived,” this new approach directly yields life expectancy and a corresponding future life table. In an ex post facto evaluation using Estonian data from the Human Mortality Database, the new approach was found to provide accurate forecasts of “years lived by age” for both point and interval measures over 15 years. In a broader context, the accuracy of Estonia’s point nLx forecasts is compared with that of Algeria, Australia, Japan, and the United States. Probabilistic nLx forecasts for Estonia from 2029 to 2039 are also provided in the paper.